Corporate Transformation Management PT
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Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques

level of course unit

2. Semester Master: 1st Study cycle

Learning outcomes of course unit

The students:
• understand the relevance of scenario techniques in the context of corporate planning in volatile times
• know different methods of scenario techniques and are able to assess their applicability in practice
• are able to apply individual methods of scenario techniques
• know qualitative forecasting methods and are able to apply them practically

prerequisites and co-requisites

2. Semester: no information

course contents

Part A - Forecasting Methods:
• Overview of different forecasting methods
• Simple quantitative methods (especially time series analysis and causal methods, e.g. trend extrapolation or linear regression)
• Qualitative methods (e.g. Delphi method)


Part B - Scenario techniques:
• Overview of different scenario techniques
• Application options and examples

recommended or required reading

Backhaus, Klaus et al. (2011) Multivariate Analysemethoden, Heidelberg
Faschingbauer, M.(2013) Effectuation – Wie erfolgreiche Unternehmer denken, entscheiden und handeln, Stuttgart.
Hassani, B. (2016) Scenario analysis in risk management: Theory and practice in finance, Wiesbaden.
Martelli, A. (2014) Model of scenario building and planning: Facing uncertainty and complexity, London.
Romeike, F.& Spitzner, J. (2013) Von Szenarioanalyse bis Wargaming: Betriebswirtschaftliche Simulationen im Praxiseinsatz, Weinheim.
Tetlock, P. & Gardner, D.(2016) Superforecasting, die Kunst der richtigen Prognose, Frankfurt.

assessment methods and criteria

• Module exam (Data Analytics & Business Modeling, Risk Management & Monitoring, Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques, Mergers & Acquisitions)
• Online questions

language of instruction

German

number of ECTS credits allocated

2

eLearning quota in percent

33

course-hours-per-week (chw)

1.5

planned learning activities and teaching methods

• Blended Learning

semester/trimester when the course unit is delivered

2

name of lecturer(s)

Thilo Grundmann

year of study

1

recommended optional program components

none

course unit code

2

type of course unit

integrated lecture

mode of delivery

Compulsory

work placement(s)

none

Contact

Situm Mario
Prof. (FH) DDr. Mario Situm, MBA
Director of Studies
+43 5372 71819 147
Mario.Situmfh-kufstein.ac.at
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